Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
