A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
